POOOOOOOOWEEEEEEEEER???
Here we go, continuing with a preview of the season that has already started at the time of writing this article! Pafos have just beaten Karmiotissa 3-0, with Jairo, Dragomir and Twumosi scoring the goals for Pafos.
Is it still a preview if the thing you’re previewing has already started?
So, what are we doing here? Well, we are going to compare what I predicted will happen with what the actual experts in football statistics are telling us will happen. I did this at the end of last season to see how close the final standings in the top two divisions in Cyprus finished, but we will be revisiting the Opta Power Rankings that everyone has forgotten about!
Should be a fairly short article, because there can’t be that many differences, can there? Well, let’s go straight in, with a comparison. First, my predictions:
Aris Limassol
APOEL Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Anorthosis Famagusta
Pafos FC
Nea Salamina
AEL Limassol
Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion
Doxa Katokopias
Ethnikos Achna
AEZ Zakakiou
Othellos Athienou
Now, what of the Power Ranknings?
Aris Limassol
APOEL Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Pafos FC
AEK Laranca
Omonia Nicosia
Anorthosis Famagusta
Nea Salamina
AEL Limassol
Karmiotissa Pano Polemidion
Othellos Athienou
Ethnikos Achna
AEZ Zakakiou
Doxa Katokopias
What the hell am I looking at?
The top two in the Power Rankings make sense, as Aris and APOEL are the only two teams still in European competitions.
But third place is taken by Apollon. There could be a couple of reasons for this. The ranking system takes into account results and scores the result of a team based on the ranking of the two teams playing each other in a fixture and looking at the probability of a team winning or losing. Apollon’s last friendly match was against a very strong Napoli side and they lost that game 2-0, which I have argued that is very respectable against the Champions of Italy. This was a team that came 5th in the Cypriot First Division last season. No other team in Cyprus has played a game against that level of competition at all. Except for Pafos, who got close, by losing to Udinese and Union Berlin. Which would explain them in 4th position.
Or it could be, that genuinely, the algorithm used to work out these rankings seems to think that Apollon’s squad is stronger this year than the 5th place finish they had last year. A squad that no longer has their top goalscorer (with Pittas moving to Sweden) or what could be argued was the top goalkeeper in the league for the last two seasons in Jovanovic (who is now at Partizan), or one of the club’s captains for the last 5 seasons in Roberge (who has moved to AEK). Maybe these new crop of players will come good. But I don’t think they will hit the European places this season.
I don’t think there are any surprises between 4th and 10th, however AEK will be screaming blue murder at these statistics, considering that the International Federation of Football History & Statistics named AEK as the best team in Cyprus. Apollon are second in this list, followed by APOEL, followed by Omonia and then Aris.
Omonia and Apollon finishing 6th and 5th in last season’s campaign, celebrating beating Aris
Down at the bottom is where things get really interesting. Doxa are the 14th best team in Cyprus according to the ranking. I think this is more related to their friendly results, but I have no idea. It’s just hard to see Doxa getting relegated with the three promoted teams skill levels being so… different.
And even then, I could maybe see Ethnikos being the team that stays up instead. But the algorithm is picking Othellos. The ranking system must really like Michal Duris.
The Power Ranking algorithm just had a great time.
I thought to have a quick look at the teams the Cypriots played against in Europe as well, to see whether the results that have occured should have, and whether there will be any chance for APOEL or Aris to progress with wins. The numbers in brackets are the clubs’ rankings in the world.
Aris (97) played BATE Borisov (546) and Rakow Częstochowa (69)
APOEL (107) played Vojvodina (467), and Dila Gori (658)
AEK (176) played Torpedo BelAZ Zhodino (785) and Maccabi Tel Aviv (68)
Omonia (229) played Qabala (1083) and Midtjylland (163)
Aris will play Slovan Bratislava (190) and APOEL will play Gent (60). So according to the ranking, Aris will be playing Europa League, and APOEL will not get past the Play Offs.
