Am I Any Good At The Match Predictions?
The first phase of the 2023/24 season of the Protathlima in Cyprus is over. Now that each of the 14 teams have played each other twice (once at “home” and once away), a split is about to occur, where the top 6 will play each other twice, equating to 10 matches, and the bottom 8 will play each other twice, summing up to 14 games.
As those who follow our account on Twitter/X will know, I have been making score predictions for every match this season, based on what I know about team news, recent results, skill and technique gaps and… just… that feeling in my gut.
I have been ignoring that feeling in my chest
Photo by Towfiqu barbhuiya: https://www.pexels.com/photo/close-up-of-a-man-in-blue-polo-shirt-with-hands-on-chest-14569658/
Now that the first part of the season is over, I thought it would be good to collate all my match predictions for the season so far and throw them into a table and compare and contrast with the real life thing. So how do the tables look?
Graphic Design is my PaSsIoN
The top table is the actual data of the final table from the first phase and the bottom table is what it would have looked like if my predictions were 100% correct. For the points, goals for and goals against, I have coloured in brighter green or red if my predictions have been within 5 goals scored or conceded, or 5 points. With the positions, I have given myself leeway of either one position higher or lower.
According to my psychic abilities, I have been able to position the teams from 8th until 14th to be exactly where they are right now. However, I think most people would have guessed that bottom 6 regardless. What is interesting however, is that for the bottom 4, it looks like I have predicted only one win less for each than what they actually got, and I have managed to get the Nea Salamina points almost spot on.
It looks like I have grossly overestimated how well Aris, Anorthosis, Omonia and Apollon have done, and in Apollon’s case made them get into the Top 6, whereas in real life, they have missed out. I have predicted 5 less points for Pafos, and that seems to have meant that they would have been 3 places lower and would have fallen out of the Top 6 altogether. I have also really underestimated how well Ethnikos and AEL (if you want to say AEL have done well) giving them 7 and 6 points less respectively.
It seems I am not a fan of AEL’s or APOEL’s forwards, and really went all-in on AEZ’s, Anorthosis’ and Nea Salamina’s front lines. To be fair to me though, APOEL have Kvilitaia up front, and, even though his work rate, pressing and support is fantastic, he has trouble putting the ball in the net. It is good for APOEL that the slack in his goals scored tally is being picked up by the attacking midfielders behind him. It looks like my biases for Nea Salamina’s Durmishaj has come through in the predictions too, as I expected him to pick up the slack following Dorregeray’s move to Peru.
I do not seem to respect Aris’, AEK’s or Omonia’s defence enough but what is surprising, I seem to know the exact capabilities of Pafos’ defensive players. I have also given too much respect to AEL’s and Ethnikos’ defences.
According to my predictions, Aris would have not got full points from only 4 games, being only 11 points less than the full allocation of 78 points for 26 wins. For APOEL that is 5 games.
I will continue to put up predictions for the second phase of the Protathlima, so, if you do not already follow the website on Twitter (or X, or whatever it is called in the week of you reading this), give it a follow. And if you do, look out for the predictions, and if you so feel inclined, throw your own predictions up there.
Why should it be just me who puts their reputation on the line?
